Who Should Be the 2008 NBA MVP?

[CLARKtoys.com]

[CLARKtoys.com]

I really think Garnett, I mean Ray Allen didn't turn them into a great defensive team....

[Travis Pyan]

Posted on 3/27/2008 2:18:26 PM
The Furious NBA MVP Debate – Kobe? Seriously?
By Tim Furious

I hate the MVP award. I’m saying that right now. There’s no reason that Tim Duncan shouldn’t be winning it every year. He’s consistently playing at such an elite level that the voters cast him aside as if to say, “Yeah we know he’s good. But who’s really been outstanding?” And that’s what the MVP vote is. We’re voting for a guy who’s having a career season (read: David Robinson) or simply playing beyond the low expectations we set out for them.

The other thing I hate about the MVP race is the inevitable drunken rant you get from some idiot friend that thinks he knows what he’s talking about. You know what I mean. The whole, “Well if Team X didn’t have Player A then they would be nothing!!!” screaming match you get from guys.

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I despise this argument. Actually, “despise” isn’t strong enough of a word. I loathe this way of thinking. It grinds my gears. It gets me more fired up Najeh Davenport doing his girlfriend’s laundry. Why? Because half the teams in the NBA would be nothing if you stripped them of their star player. Are the Spurs the Spurs without Duncan? Or can the Magic even win a game if they don’t have Dwight Howard? No! Anytime that argument is brought up, Captain Obvious needs to be put on a talking timeout for at least 45 minutes. It’s obvious he brings nothing to the conversation in the first place, so why not remove him from the picture?

Which brings me to the point of the day. There are at least four players who deserve to be in the debate, and one who deserves a little bit of credit because of how amazing his season has been. Then there are a bunch of players that at the very least deserve a quick shout out. So here goes.

SHOUTOUT GUYS

Tracy McGrady – 22 Wins means nothing if you can’t win a playoff series

Marcus Camby – 13 rebounds, 3+ blocks per game. Only Kareem has been better.

Andre Miller – Not getting nearly enough credit for what he’s doing in Philly

Dwight Howard – You have some serious balls if you can take the “Superman” nickname from Shaq, and get his stamp of approval while doing so.

Tim Duncan – Just because.

DESERVES A MENTION – Manu Ginobli (San Antonio Spurs)

Andrew, a guy I work with here at BetUS.com, had to remind me of just how brilliant his season has been. So I looked it up. The line: 20.1 ppg, 4.8 assists and 4.8 rebounds a game. That’s ridiculous for a guy that is universally hated around NBA fan bases. Sure he looks like he’s dripping motor oil no matter when we see him, and yes we hate the flopping. But you can’t discard what Manu did after the All-Star break and how important he’s become to the Spurs since we’ve all come to realize that Tony Parker doesn’t deserve the life he has (seriously, I don’t know if I hate him or Tom Brady more), or the credit he gets. Either way Manu deserves his own little blurb. So now that that’s over, let’s get to…

THE OUTSIDE SHOT – Kevin Garnett (Boston Celtics)

The Big Ticket is by and large my favorite player in the league, so I make no bones about my preference to him. He’s the reason Boston is the best defensive unit in the league, and a serious bet in the UNDER every game. He’s only played with one All-Star in his entire career, and now that he has two, we’re seeing exactly what he’s capable of. From his intense passion for winning, to his tearful, “I just wanna win” interview and his ability to cover nearly anyone on the floor, there’s a lot to love about KG.

Except one thing.

Last night against Phoenix he took over the game. But that was the first time we’ve seen him do that this season. And he still has a tendency to disappear when the game is on the line. You can see it in him. He panics when the game is on the wire. And that’s why he’s an outside shot. Paul and Ray Ray being on Team Green doesn’t help his chances either.

WHO SHOULD WIN – Chris Paul

Best. Point Guard. Season. Ever.

He has 21.6 points per game and 11.4 helpers per game. Not only that, he has 3.9 rebounds per game as a flipping point-guard. A lot of writers have beaten this dead horse with a stick, but if Steve Nash can win the award twice, Paul should definitely win it this season. He’s impossible to defend. He’s the best point guard in the entire league and without him, there’s no way the Hornets reward their betting faithful by going 44-25-1 ATS this season. If the voters have any backbone, they’ll reward CP3 this season. Do the right thing, voters. Vote for New Orleans. Vote for justice. Vote for Paul in ’08!

WHO COULD WIN – Lebron James

I’m not going to get in to this whole thing about Vogue and reenacting a King-Kong poster. I’m just not. What I am going to get in to is the fact that King James has been a class act this entire season, not to mention an absolutely terrifying force whenever he wants to be. Remember when Chris Bosh’s girlfriend pissed Lebron off when she berated him from the stands? The King responded by dropping 39-11-8 on the Raptors in a victory while screaming, “this is all your fault” to Bosh’s idiot girlfriend. Frankly, he should win on this feat alone. Is Chris Bosh even with this girl anymore? Can someone find this out for me and call me at 1-888-51-BETUS x2305 and tell me please? I need to know these things.

King James leads the league with 30.9 points per game but that’s besides the point. He has been the ideal superstar this season. He never threw anyone under the bus. Not Larry Hughes, even when he deserved to be thrown under a semi-truck. Lebron was never shy about wanting help, but he never threw a temper tantrum. When the Cavs missed out on Kidd, and then Bibby, LBJ didn’t even seem fazed. He didn’t pull a Vince and demand to be traded. He didn’t pull a Kobe and brutalize his team, or management. He simply played the lights out night in and night out. You can see it in his numbers. You can see it in the way he dominates the vaunted Pistons. He deserves this award much more than they guy who’s actually going to win it…

WHO WILL WIN – Kobe F’n Bryant

I don’t have a hate on for Kobe on a personal level. I love the fact that he cheated on his wife, then bought his way out of it. It told me everything I need to know about women: if you have enough money, they won’t give a damn what you do.

I don’t even have a hate on for Kobe for trying to destroy Andrew Bynum’s confidence. It made me invest in a camera phone “just in case”. And Bynum responded by becoming a dominant inside player before his knee injury. It told me everything I need to know about being a teammate: if you don’t like someone, let everyone in the world know, and it’ll turn their life around. Negative reinforcement apparently works. I knew those crazy Chinese parents were on to something!

I hate Kobe because he’s getting this award despite being an absolute douchebag last summer and for the first third of the season. He pouted, and stomped his feet and nearly took his ball out of LA because he was so upset. Yes, he’s come out since and rewarded the Lakers betting faithful. And yes he got Pau Gasol. The Lakers look the team to beat now and that is largely due to Kobe.

But I can’t get over the fact that he whined for six straight months till he got what he wanted, while Lebron kept his mouth shut, went to work with what he had and still put up better numbers. I just can’t. Kobe will win this award because of his career achievement. CP3 and LBJ are having bigger impacts and more outstanding seasons.

This is the one argument I have against Kobe: would the Lakers be this good without Gasol? And if not, would Kobe be in this discussion? The answer to both questions is “no”. While he’s the favorite to win it, and deserving of your betting consideration in our NBA futures, he doesn’t deserve it. He simply doesn’t. This isn’t a life time achievement award, yet that’s what the voters will treat it like.

[Frank Rocha]

I agree

[Bobby]

I bleed Green but no way is KG. Like I said below Pierce is the MVP of the Cs. No way can KG or Pierce be MVP when they have each other and they also have Ray. That is 3 Hall Of Famers. Chris Paul or Kobe. Whoever wins the West IMO.

[Bobby]

It should NOT be KG. I am a season tix holder of the C's and probably the most die hard C's fan u will ever meet. KG has been amazing this year no doubt about it and if he doesn't win Defensive Player Of The Year it would be a crime!

As far as NBA MVP goes though. no way should KG be the MVP. IMO and alot of other Celtics fans, Paul Pierce is the MVP of the Celtics. However, Pierce shouldn't be the MVP either. Neither one should be MVP because they have each other. Not only each other, but Ray Allen. That is 3 Hall Of Famers on 1 team. How can 1 be the MVP over the other? KG missed 9 games and we were 7-2. Ray Allen missed 7 games and we were 6-1. They missed atleast 1 game together and we were 1-0 and won by 30 points, on the 2nd night of a back-to-back in Miami. The one common thread was Paul Pierce. That is 13-3 without either KG and/or Ray Allen. If a supposed "MVP" misses games, their team isn't supposed to win over 75% of their games. Not only over 75%, but we beat San Antonio and Dallas w/o KG. Pierce had 26 and 35 points respectively in those 2 games. Paul Pierce is the MVP of the Boston Celtics! If Pierce and Allen got traded to Minnesota, instead of KG and Allen coming to Boston, Pierce would be getting the attention of their "savior" like KG is now.

Now in terms of MVP, to me it's down to 2 players: Chris Paul or Kobe Bryant. LeBron James fans need to calm down. I think LeBron is the best player in the NBA. That being said MVP does not stand for the best player, it stands for Most Valuable Player. Yes, the Cavs were 0-5 I believe w/o LeBron, but they are also the 4th best team in the EAST! Not the 4th best team in the league, but in the "JV" EAST!!! No way can the MVP come from the 4th best team in the worse confernce. Right now, as of 4/11/08, I would vote for Chris Paul over Kobe Bryant. Not by much, but I would pick Paul nonetheless. To me the deciding factor in who I think is the MVP, is going to be whose team wins the West. If the Hornets end up with the best record in the West, then I pick Paul for MVP. If the Lakers win the West, then I pick Kobe. That is just my 2 cents, but a well spent 2 cents if I must say so myself!

Bobby

[CLARKtoys.com]

That was at least 10 cents......But Pierce was there last year and they were awfull.....so maybe Chris Paul.....

[Bobby]

Pierce missed 35 games. If u figure the winning % with Pierce for 47 games he played, they make the playoffs. Remember when he got hurt they were on a 5 game winning streak.

[tru25]

CP3 to TC6 is what you constantly hear... and CP3 MVP is what will be heard next!

[CLARKtoys.com]

ESPN.com

The World's Most Unlikely MVP Showdown

April 11, 2008 5:26 PM


Tonight, at 10:30 Eastern/7:30 Pacific, the Los Angeles Lakers will face the New Orleans Hornets in Tinseltown.

Potentially on the line: the #1 seed in the West, and an MVP award that could go to Chris Paul or Kobe Bryant.

Whoa. Really?

Think back to when this season began. Remember preseason predictions?

(By the way, I don't mean to pick on the people at NBA.com by linking to their predictions. Mine were just as bad -- but theirs came up first in my google search, and a blogger mustn't dawdle. And as long as we're parenthetical, predictions that later look silly are one thing I really really really love about the NBA. The game, in the end, laughs at just about everyone who thinks they know what's going to happen. Picking who is going to win an NBA game is like launching a three-pointer -- you can be among the best in the world at it, and still clank it off the rim time and again.)

In the midst of the mighty Kobe Bryant meltdown of 2007, the Lakers would have won a "most likely team to be launched into orbit to make things simpler on earth" vote. But they were not on anybody's "most likely to win the West" list.

The Hornets? The Hornets were in the worst of preseason predicaments.

Picture your typical high school movie. One of the worse people you can be in that movie is the kid that gets locked in the locker while everybody gathers around and laughs. What's worse than that? The kid who gets locked in the locker while nobody even notices, and goes about the business of their day. That was the Hornets. Praised by almost no one, and forgotten by almost everybody else.

Even people who love them some NBA are still not certain which city the Hornets play in. The conversation from a thousand barstools: "Oh yeah, the Hornets ... Charlotte, right? Oh no no, wait ... sorry ... sure, of course, Oklahoma City. Wait. I mean, what? Oh, did they move? Again? They're back? In Charlotte? Oh, cool ... good for them. New Orleans is awesome. Big Easy, baby!"

But here we are. That's the deal. All the teams that everyone loved in the preseason -- the world champion San Antonio Spurs, the Phoenix Suns who lost to the Spurs on something of a technicality, the Dallas Mavericks who had special motivation courtesy of the Warriors, the Jazz who were fresh off the Western Conference Finals, the trendy Rockets -- now have a combined 7.1% chance at winning the top seed in the Conference, according to John Hollinger's playoff odds.

And it's up to these two unlikely teams.

The way the tie-breakers and standings and everything break down, in broad laymen's terms, the Hornets can practically wrap up the conference with a win tonight. If the home team wins, however, the fight is on.

Meanwhile, in the MVP race, I'm a steadfast believer in the candidacy of all four candidates.

LeBron James, no matter what Cleveland's record is, has to be in the mix. Let's say Cleveland makes it to the Finals every year for a decade with LeBron James plus a crappy supporting cast. At the end of that, we'd know he was the most amazing player, right? Well, right now it's one down and nine to go. At some point, he will have backed up those fearsome stats.

Kevin Garnett, on the other hand, made the best team in the league out of the worst team in the East. When the Celtics have won their rings (that is the most likely thing, isn't it?) and everyone is dissecting the performance, we might all feel really stupid for not crowning this guy.

Yet if you read the tea leaves -- the brain droppings of the media who vote -- at the moment, I feel the two most likely candidates are the guys playing tonight.

Chris Paul is the insurgent. The new kid. The future that may or may not be here yet. And Kobe Bryant? He's the people's champ, even if he can't really jump over a car.

And now they go mano a mano (... a mano a mano a mano a mano a mano a mano a mano a mano -- not wanting to neglect the other eight players on the court.) What's going to happen tonight? Oh man, I am kind of thrilled to say that I have no idea.

In lieu of priming you for the big event with actual insight or clairvoyance, I am instead going to leave you with a broad array of information that is kind of neat-o:

Kobe Bryant vs. Hornets this year: 27.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 5.7 APG (1-2)
Chris Paul vs. Lakers: 26.0 PPG, 14.3 APG, 2.7 SPG (2-1)
John Hollinger in a recent chat confirms that by the best review we have of box score statistics -- PER -- Paul is a stronger candidate for MVP than Bryant: "I think Kobe's argument for MVP is pretty weak to be honest. His PER isn't even better than Garnett's, who is supposed to be the non-numbers candidate, and it isn't close to Paul's or James's. If he wins, it's a guilt trip by the writers over the '06 vote."
By a new measure that assesses rates of assists and buckets, Chris Paul plays a role in nearly 50% of New Orleans' baskets. That's darn near the best rate in NBA history. John Stockton holds the all-time record.

Let's talk defense! Chris Paul gets a gold star for leading the league in steals. But that happens two or three times a game, and defense happens every time down the floor. We need a bigger picture view. I'm really hoping that Kobe Bryant will max out his machismo and spend some time guarding Chris Paul. I think there is little chance Paul -- who gets devoured by big strong guards like Deron Williams, despite his feistiness and strength -- will reciprocate. According to numbers tracked by the Celtics and discussed on the radio by the Celtics' owner Wyc Grousbeck nearly two weeks ago, one on one, Chris Paul holds his opponents to a field goal percentage that is 4% below the league average for their position. Bryant holds them 3% below by the same measure, according to Grousbeck.
Goursbeck cited one of the many imperfect ways we have of measuring defense. Another is to dig deep into plus/minus numbers, which can always leave you wondering how much of what's happening is attributable to the player. However, on this front, I urge you to consider an amazing email from professor Stephen Ilardi, who has consulted with Roy Williams' staff at Kansas, and is an expert in adusted +/-. He writes: "CP3 is obviously one of the game's top offensive players, his overall defensive performance this season has been poor. How can I be sure? The simplest way is to look at the Hornets' defensive efficiency (opponents' points-per-100-possessions) with Paul on-court versus off-court. With Paul on the court, the Hornets give up 106.37 points every 100 possessions; with him off the court they're much better defensively, giving up only 99.94 points every 100 possessions. It's worth noting that Paul's on-off disparity is the worst of all Hornets players (starters or subs), so it cannot be a mere artifact of his being on the court with other poor defensive players. (By way of comparison, for example, the Hornets are 1.5 points better defensively with David West on the court). As you know, the best measure of a player's overall impact on the game's bottom line is his adjusted plus-minus rating, which adjusts statistically for the effect of all teammates and opponents, and also factors in both offensive and defensive contributions. Paul's adjusted plus-minus rating right now (through games of April 10) is +0.76 points per 100 possessions, indicative of a modest overall positive contribution. Put simply: his superb offensive contributions have been largely offset by his apparent defensive liabilities. Based on this season's adjusted plus-minus numbers, a much stronger MVP case can be made for either Kobe (+12.04) or LeBron (+11.35), and perhaps the best case of all for Dwight Howard (+16.57). "

[Travis Pyan]

Our vote is still tied! Only 1 day left for the regular season.....

[CLARKtoys.com]

The ESPN tally:

The Tally
Kobe Bryant: 64 points (9 first-place votes, 2 second, 3 third, 1 fourth)
Chris Paul: 60 points (4 first-place votes, 8 second, 2 third, 1 fourth)
Kevin Garnett: 44 points (1 first-place vote, 4 second, 5 third, 3 fourth, 2 fifth)
LeBron James: 37 points (1 first-place vote, 1 second, 5 third, 5 second, 3 fifth)
Dwight Howard: 10 points (3 fourth-place votes, 4 fifth)
Amare Stoudemire: 6 points (2 fourth-place votes, 2 fifth)
Tim Duncan: 1 point
Manu Ginobili: 1 point
Tracy McGrady: 1 point
Hedo Turkoglu: 1 point
Five points awarded for first-place votes, four points for second place, and so on.